A | 新西兰中文先驱报 Kenny 报道 新西兰优先党党魁Winston Peters表示，尽管财政存在资金缺口，但优先党不打算对其竞选承诺打折。 NEW YORK -- The yield on the 10-year Treasury has reached 5% for the first time since 2007. That matters for everyone, not just Wall Street. Treasury yields have been climbing rapidly, with the 10-year yield rallying from less than 3.50% during the spring and from just 0.50% early in the pandemic. Monday morning, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was at 4.96% after hitting 5.02% earlier. The jump means the U.S. government must pay more to borrow money from investors to cover its spending.It also directly affects people around the world, because the 10-year Treasury yield is the centerpiece of the global financial system and helps set prices for all kinds of other loans and investments. Besides making it more expensive for U.S. homebuyers to buy a house with a mortgage, higher yields also put downward pressure on prices for everything from stocks to cryptocurrencies. Eventually, they could help cause companies to lay off more workers. Higher yields mark a sharp turnaround for a generation of consumers and investors who have known pretty much just low yields, as central banks kept benchmark interest rates pinned at nearly zero. Such low rates let people borrow money more easily, which helped economies to strengthen following the 2008 financial crisis, the European debt crisis and other maladies including, most recently, the COVID-19 pandemic. The low rates led to rising prices for houses, stocks and other investments, but they may also have encouraged too much risk-taking and spurred investment bubbles.Now, central banks are more concerned with getting high inflation under control. To do that, they raise interest rates and hope the higher costs to borrow will starve inflation of its fuel by bringing down spending. The Fed's main interest rate affects extremely short-term loans, those that banks charge overnight. The Fed has already pulled its federal funds rate to the highest level since 2001, and it's debating whether to hike it one more time. Either way, it's signaled plans to keep rates high for a while to successfully suffocate inflation. The 10-year Treasury yield has been catching up to the Fed's main interest rate after a string of reports has shown the U.S. economy remains remarkably resilient. While that calms worries about a possible recession caused by high rates, it could also keep upward pressure on inflation and shorter-term rates. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Thursday that many other factors could be contributing to the swift rise in the 10-year Treasury yield. They include the U.S. government's big deficits, which require more federal borrowing, and the Fed's ongoing efforts to reduce its trove of bond investments built earlier to keep yields low. On the wonkier side, bond prices have also been falling in tandem with stock prices more often than they used to. That's unnerving for investors who usually see bonds as the safer part of their portfolios, and it could be pushing them to demand higher yields to own them.The rise in the 10-year Treasury yield most directly means the U.S. government has to pay more to borrow money for 10 years. But because the 10-year yield is the reference point for financial markets, it also quickly filters out into all kinds of loans. Even for companies with the best credit ratings, the interest rates they borrow at are set by adding some extra on top of whatever the U.S. government is paying for its Treasurys. Borrowers with worse credit ratings have to pay more extra than those seen as good bets to repay their debts.More expensive borrowing keep U.S. households from spending as much and companies from expanding as much, which should eventually hit overall U.S. economic activity. More immediately, because a 10-year Treasury is seen as one of the safest possible investments on the planet, its yield swiftly sways prices for all kinds of investments. When a super-safe Treasury is paying much more in interest, investors feel less need to pay high prices for a Big Tech stocks, cryptocurrency or other investment that carries more risk. It's a big reason the S&P 500 has seen its gain for the year so far tumble from 19.5% at the end of July to 10% as of Friday. Higher U.S. yields also attract more investments from abroad, which means investors are increasingly swapping their currencies for U.S. dollars. Since the end of July, the U.S. dollar has climbed roughly 4% against the euro, 5% against the British pound and 6% against the Australian dollar. While a stronger dollar helps U.S. tourists buy more stuff when they're abroad, it can also add financial pressure and heighten inflation for other countries, particularly in the developing world. Even for U.S. bond investors, the swift rise in bond yields has brought losses of their own. When new bonds are paying higher yields, it makes the older, lower-yielding bonds already sitting in investors' portfolios or mutual funds less attractive and knocks down their price.The largest U.S. bond mutual fund has lost roughly 3% so far in 2023 and is on track for a third straight yearly loss. That's never happened since its birth in 1987.。 而国家党财政部长Nicola Willis否认存在56亿纽币的资金缺口。她只表示，在经过内阁讨论前，无法保证兑现7月减税的承诺。 Advertise with us 3月17日Peters在北帕发表国情咨文演讲时承认了政府财政存在资金短缺，他说原因在于“增长率并不像我们想象的那样”。他说预计未来几年新西兰的经济增长将显著低于预期，当前经济处于“崩溃”状态。 被记者问道如果缺了56亿纽币联合政府是否还能兑现减税承诺时，Peters暗示说依然具备可行性，但具体如何实施有待确认。 “我们一直在进行联合谈判，看未来的建设道路可能是什么，”他说。 资金不足引发人们对政府将如何兑现承诺的疑问，联合伙伴已经被迫在政策上做出妥协。如上周宣布恢复的负扣税，就没有像行动党和国家党联合协议中所承诺的那样，从2023年4月1日起回溯调整，而是改为今年4月1日起生效。
B | 但Peters明确表示，他不会在优先党的承诺事项上做出妥协。这就意味着可能只有优先党的联合伙伴做出妥协了。 财政部长Nicola Willis表示，无法确认是否能够按照联盟协议约定的那样，在今年7月落实减税政策。
C | 在接受采访时Willis说，政府仍致力于在7月推出减税计划，但该计划需要经过内阁讨论。而且考虑到本届政府任期为三年，“我们有三份预算来兑现我们的承诺，我们不会用第一份预算来兑现我们的每一个承诺”。 Willis还否认财政存在56亿纽币的资金缺口。
D | 她说制定中的预算案“总体上是谨慎和保守的”。 她承认一些筹资计划（如赌博税）没能得到实现，但通过成本削减和其他收入来源能够支持减税计划的落实。
E | Peters也说新西兰仍然有减税的潜力，但经济基本面比大选时要糟糕得多，可能“对未来账簿产生数十亿纽币的影响”。 “可悲的是，这就是选举后的现实。我们的工作就是扭转局面和修复它。” 相关阅读： 总理Christopher Luxon公布百天计划！这“49项行动”最为紧迫 政府部长喊话领失业补贴的人：不要躺平，否则…… 2024预算案时间定了！将包含减税计划 《2024年国情报告》发布，新西兰面临两个重大问题 政府今年将节省开支大举减税，有多少公务员会被裁？ Christopher Luxon国情咨文首秀：“我们的国家很脆弱” 新西兰将重置福利体系：“领完福利就躺平”不行了！ 工党人事大洗牌！他辞职去当大学校长只因羁绊太深？ 注：本文为编译/原创，欢迎转发分享；但严禁复制等未经授权的非法使用。违反上述声明者，本网将追究其相关法律责任。使用授权请联系[email protected]。 chineseherald.co.nz All Rights Reserved 版权所有 (责编：鸮鹦鹉) 相关内容 突发：奥克兰市中心戒严，美女警察持枪以待！ 突发！新西兰南岛发生4.6级地震，数千人有感 奥克兰海域发现尸骸疑似中国公民 中领馆回应 高中生对未来副总理吐口水被停课，家长：孩子棒棒的！ 新西兰“酒驾狂魔”再次违法开车！62岁大爷多次撞死人，永远在路上…… 新西兰用什么来欢迎中国外交部长？ 无名女尸细节披露：穿中国老纺织厂背心，华人社区成破案关键 基督城恐袭五周年：受害者伤痛还在，ACC已切断补偿。
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